I probably overindex on analytical, logical, rational explanations. Intelligence is not always wearing a clean and precise argument. I should instead defer to lived experience. Look for places where there are (1) feedback loops and (2) incentives to move you to the right predictions. For example I often distrust personal trainers. Their reasoning for certain things is not grounded in a logical framework of how the body works. But they have seen so much training data, and they have lived through feedback loops, and their incentives to figure out what works are pretty strong (not perfect). I've been talking to more recently and realizing I just discount them because they're not great with words.

I think this is a very (Nassim) Taleb-ian point. Don't trust explainers. Tawk is cheap